Look
Stop watching.
I love this graph from behavioural researcher, Dr Ryan Murphy, as it highlights a simple truth: the more often we look at our portfolios, the more volatility we believe we see. Every dip feels emotional and may increase the risk of acting at the wrong time.
This happens because two powerful behavioural forces are at play.
- Loss aversion. We feel losses about twice as strongly as gains, so a daily watcher doesn't just see more red days; they feel them more deeply.
- Pattern-seeking. We try to find meaning in short-term noise, which triggers unnecessary worry and can lead to bad decisions.
Source: Dr Ryan Murphy / Morningstar
The graph above shows the same market and the same returns. However, the person who looks annually will see gains 74% of the time. The person who looks daily will see gains only 54% of the time.
You will therefore have a completely different experience depending on how often you check your portfolio.
So, let’s remember that even good portfolios lose money throughout the year, but still grow over time. As Warren Buffett puts it: "A tolerance for short-term swings improves our long-term prospects."
Listen
Why the stories we believe may determine our future
I have always enjoyed Yuval Noah Harari, author of Sapiens, for his candid conversations. As a historian, he tends to see a bigger picture and pattern unfolding that others cannot see.
Harari has spent his career essentially studying one big question: over millennia, how is it that humans, of all animals, have risen to the top? He believes it comes down to stories. Our ability to get millions of strangers to believe in the same thing and cooperate because of stories is extraordinary.
One such story is the money story. Harari calls it the “greatest story ever told”.
The dollar isn’t an objective reality. It doesn’t come from the laws of physics. It’s something we invented. And if we all believe in it, you can hand a piece of paper to a complete stranger and get bread in exchange. Democracy is a story. Human rights are a story. Nations are stories. They’re not lies, they’re shared fictions that allow us to cooperate at a scale no other species can.
Harari recently sat down with Ezra Klein from the New York Times to discuss this theme in more detail.
Stories are powerful, but they’re not permanent. Harari shares that “anger and fear are like fires: they burn hot, but they need to be fed. Stop feeding them, and they die down”.
The possibility of cooperation, of peace, of better stories, is always there. But those stories need maintenance. They need people who care enough to keep them alive.
Watch the video here.
Learn
The way we work is changing fast!
Microsoft published their annual Work Trend Index this year, and I found myself scrolling through it a few times. They surveyed 20,000 workers across 10 countries, and the picture is clear: AI is no longer something companies are experimenting with. It’s becoming the way work gets done.
The big idea? Everyone is about to become an “agent boss.” Not a boss of people but a boss of AI agents. Building them, delegating them, managing what they produce. It sounds like science fiction, but it’s already happening in many companies!
I’ll be honest, part of me finds this exciting, and part of me finds it unsettling. What does it mean for my children and other young people starting their careers? What does it mean for the industries we all work in? I don’t have the answers, but I think this report is a good reminder that staying curious isn’t optional anymore.
Read the survey here.
Ponder
In this section, I invite you to think about a question I may pose or a thought I may share.
Nothing works if you don't. Not your career, not your relationships, not your finances. Your energy, your health and your headspace are the foundation. Neglect it, and you cap everything else.
Oenophilia
“Oenophilia simply refers to enjoying wine, often by laymen.”
Ferdi and Elizma Visser have managed Olifantsberg Vinyards for the past 10 years. Elizma was named Tim Atkin’s Young Winemaker of the Year in 2021 and is responsible for viticulture and farming strategy. The wine making process is a joint effort between this husband-and-wife team.
This is a new wine for me, and I thoroughly enjoyed it. I think this dynamic young duo will be on the wine scene for many years to come!
Soul of the Mountain the Bull is a Rhône-style blend of Syrah, Carignan, Mourvèdre, and Grenache. What makes it special is the complexity. The grapes come from 10 different vineyard sites on the Olifantsberg Mountain, each one adding its own character. Full-bodied with notes of dark fruit and cherry.
I paired this with a traditional slow-cooked potjie!
Stay curious,
Elke Zeki
<Foundation Family Wealth is an Authorised Financial Services Provider>
